How I am even MORE SURE now that Barack Obama has the lead for November

I did a post about this premise on October 2, based on the switch in preference from Mitt Romney to Barack Obama by a family member and friend.  I realize this isn’t scientific but their conversion did represent two individuals who were and still are hard-core conservatives.  I figure if the President has convinced two hard-liners like these two, then the undecideds will certainly be at least up for grabs.  But my new hypothesis is stronger and more methodical based on facts.

Arizona has been controlled by Republicans at least as long as I have lived here which is over 22 years.  Even when Democrat Janet Napolitano was Governor, she had to fight constantly with a GOP legislature that has grown steadily more conservative thanks to a strong Arizona Tea Party.  Today the state is under the complete control of 2 factions: The Tea Party and the National Rifle Assn. (NRA). 

Somehow, since Napolitano left, the legislature has turned into a bunch of fanatical conservative lunatics, and the state is stuck with a governor who doesn’t have the slightest clue about what she is doing.  The evidence of this is the ridicule Arizona takes from the national media on a regular basis.

Well, guess what?  A new Rocky Mountain poll shows that the Presidential race in Arizona is close: Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 44% to 42%.  Now I am no political analyst but my gut tells me, based on the outlandish antics of the state’s Republican government, and a population that put them in office and up to this point seemed oblivious to what was going on in Arizona, the progressives have great momentum going in Arizona as well as nationwide.  There’s more.

Top Republicans like Gov. Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio have basically alienated every voting Hispanic in the state.  There are 400,000 Latinos registered to vote and another 405,000 eligible but unregistered.  Democrats are hoping to get 300,000 of this number registered before November.  The Rocky Mountain poll reveals that 77% of these Hispanics are for Obama, 10% for Romney. 

It is estimated that 21.5 million Latinos will be eligible to vote nationwide in November, and if the 77% figure hold up, the President can almost be assured of 16.5 million potential votes.  But the question is, will Hispanics come out to vote?

And there’s even more.  Democrat Richard Carmona is running against Republican Rep. Jeff Flake for the Senate seat vacated by Jon Kyl.  Flake has been in Congress for six terms and was considered a shoo-in coming into the race but the poll found Carmona leading Flake by 4 points, 44% to 40%.  Carmona is Latino and the former Surgeon General under George W. Bush who, with large support from the President, doesn’t agree 100% with Obamacare.

But if the left can swing Arizona, which has formerly fought off all progressive candidates and issues, what does that mean on the national level?  It is generally accepted that to win the Presidential election, you must win Ohio.  According to Public Policy Polling, as of today Obama leads Romney by 5 points in Ohio, 51% to 46%.  There’s a new presidential debate coming up and Obama has promised to come out aggressive.  Right now, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Arizona.

Barry Goldwater daughter will vote Democrat

I am strictly a progressive in the truest sense of the word, but I have great admiration for Barry Goldwater as a man and a statesman.  Not just a politician like many of the hacks in Congress and running for president these days, but one who has the wisdom to lead and who wants only the best for the citizens of this country.  Would he turn over in his grave knowing that his eldest daughter, Joanne Goldwater is voting for a Democrat?  Don’t think so and here’s why.



Joanne Goldwater with Carmona

Ms. Goldwater, who must know her dad’s politics, says Jeff Flake, who is running in Arizona against Democrat Richard Carmona for Jon Kyl’s Senate seat, does not practice her father’s “brand of conservatism,” nor does she think the modern day Republican Party does.  Barry Goldwater was credited with sparking the resurgence of the conservative movement in the 1960s pushing the GOP further right with his famous statement:

"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.  And ... moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."

But Goldwater’s extremism didn’t come off like that of today’s Republican fanatics, particularly the Tea Party.  And that is how a statesman separates himself from the run-of-the-mill politicians that are running Congress today.  I agreed very little with most of his views and told him so at a signing of his book, Conscience of a Conservative in Phoenix in 1960.  I was a bleeding liberal in those days and the Senator commented that there was still time to change.

Goldwater lost to Lyndon Johnson in 1964 in one of the largest landslides in history.  Goldwater was not a supporter of the religious right, commenting in his book, "I am a conservative Republican, but I believe in democracy and the separation of church and state.  The conservative movement is founded on the simple tenet that people have the right to live life as they please as long as they don't hurt anyone else in the process."  Today would turn him over in his grave.

Richar Carmona on his politics:

On this same issue he said, "I don't have any respect for the Religious Right.  There is no place in this country for practicing religion in politics.  That goes for Falwell, Robertson and all the rest of these political preachers.  They are a detriment to the country."  In fact, in Conscience of a Conservative he commented, "Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell's ass."  He always spoke his mind and oh, if only he had been a progressive.

Richard Carmona

So if Arizona’s Jeff Flake isn’t a true conservative in the genuine sense of the word, then what would you label Mitt Romney?  So far I have found no comments from Joanne Goldwater re. Mitt Romney’s candidacy for President.  Most would agree, Barry Goldwater would never flip-flop on the issues like Romney and Obama Senior Adviser David Plouffe even said:

“…he {Romney} is the most radical conservative since Barry Goldwater. You can’t kind of have it both ways. Barry Goldwater was not a flip flopping phony. And so, if you’re going to say that Romney is a flip flopping phony, you can’t say that he’s a hard right conservative.”

Any way you look at this, Mitt Romney appears to be attempting to be just what the voters want him to be, with no real vision for how he would run this country.  On the other hand, we know what Barack Obama stands for, and, as Flip Wilson used to say, “You get what you see.”  Obama made a comment recently that I thought really humbled him. 

He said after he wins his second term that hopefully the Republicans that have made it their mission for the last four years just to get rid of him will change their tactics and at least meet him half way. 

No animosity or revenge in his remark, just the statement of a man who wants the best for the U.S. and is asking for the support of the opposing party which, so far, has been the party of NO to everything he proposed.  Things are looking up for the President while Romney continues to implode by simply opening his mouth.  In the latest Electoral Vote count by Huffington Post, it has Obama at 332 votes, Romney with 191.  You need 270 to win.

Is Arizona the hub for turning out the Hispanic vote nationally in 2012?

All of a sudden President Obama is interested in Arizona.  He probably wrote it off in 2008 running against home grown John McCain, but he might have viewed the state in a different way had the Hispanic population been the factor then it is projected to be in 2012.  Activists are popping up everywhere and drives are active to get Latinos registered to vote.  With former State Sen. Russell Pearce, the racist who authored SB-1070 voted out of office, there is hope.   

Arizona’s Hispanic voting-age population has jumped from 455,000 nine years ago to 845,000 today, 19 percent of the state’s population eligible to vote.  These are daunting numbers when you consider just how much mock Gov. Jan Brewer and her lackeys in the Arizona’s legislature have pissed off Latinos.  One recent show of force was indicated by Hispanic firefighter Daniel Valenzuela beating a white businesswoman for a spot on the Phoenix City Council.  Latinos also played a big part in the defeat of Russell Pearce.

Obama’s chances to get the majority of the Hispanic vote is enhanced by the continued inflexible position Republican candidates are taking against Latinos.  With Arizona as the center of the anti-immigration movement, and the GOP firmly entrenched in its similar stance, plus rejuvenated movers and shakers out there touting the anti-immigration rhetoric, there’s little doubt that Hispanics will be fired up in 2012.

 

And then there’s Richard Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general in President George W. Bush's administration, an Independent supported by Pres. Obama, running to fill Sen. Jon Kyl’s vacated seat.  If the map that has been presented by the Arizona Redistricting Commission stays in place, the fairer districts, according to everyone but Republicans, will give the Dems. a shot at U.S. Representative seats. 

Taking Arizona in 2012 is not really that far-fetched considering Obama won 45 percent of the state running against McCain in 2008.  But there are still the economics of the upcoming election and people’s financial situation plus continuing joblessness will affect the President, although the unemployment rate has dropped recently to 8.6 percent nationally.

Democrats are hoping to register approximately 300,000 new Latinos to vote prior to November 2012.  Add to that the 400,000 already registered already and you have a formidable force.  If they can be convinced to vote.  Even if they are legal in Arizona some Hispanics are still scared to stand up against the likes of Russell Pearce who still has plenty of anti-immigrant followers.

One bright spot, Colorado, by the grace of former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo’s drive to alienate Latinos in his state, was able to sign up 225,000 new Hispanics who voted in the 2008 election turning the state from red to blue.  Within 6 months of fake Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signing anti-immigration law SB-1070 in 2010, 43,000 new Latinos were registered to vote in Colorado.  Obama would love to see a blue Arizona but am sure he would settle for the color purple.