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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

How I am even MORE SURE now that Barack Obama has the lead for November

I did a post about this premise on October 2, based on the switch in preference from Mitt Romney to Barack Obama by a family member and friend.  I realize this isn’t scientific but their conversion did represent two individuals who were and still are hard-core conservatives.  I figure if the President has convinced two hard-liners like these two, then the undecideds will certainly be at least up for grabs.  But my new hypothesis is stronger and more methodical based on facts.

Arizona has been controlled by Republicans at least as long as I have lived here which is over 22 years.  Even when Democrat Janet Napolitano was Governor, she had to fight constantly with a GOP legislature that has grown steadily more conservative thanks to a strong Arizona Tea Party.  Today the state is under the complete control of 2 factions: The Tea Party and the National Rifle Assn. (NRA). 

Somehow, since Napolitano left, the legislature has turned into a bunch of fanatical conservative lunatics, and the state is stuck with a governor who doesn’t have the slightest clue about what she is doing.  The evidence of this is the ridicule Arizona takes from the national media on a regular basis.

Well, guess what?  A new Rocky Mountain poll shows that the Presidential race in Arizona is close: Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 44% to 42%.  Now I am no political analyst but my gut tells me, based on the outlandish antics of the state’s Republican government, and a population that put them in office and up to this point seemed oblivious to what was going on in Arizona, the progressives have great momentum going in Arizona as well as nationwide.  There’s more.

Top Republicans like Gov. Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio have basically alienated every voting Hispanic in the state.  There are 400,000 Latinos registered to vote and another 405,000 eligible but unregistered.  Democrats are hoping to get 300,000 of this number registered before November.  The Rocky Mountain poll reveals that 77% of these Hispanics are for Obama, 10% for Romney. 

It is estimated that 21.5 million Latinos will be eligible to vote nationwide in November, and if the 77% figure hold up, the President can almost be assured of 16.5 million potential votes.  But the question is, will Hispanics come out to vote?

And there’s even more.  Democrat Richard Carmona is running against Republican Rep. Jeff Flake for the Senate seat vacated by Jon Kyl.  Flake has been in Congress for six terms and was considered a shoo-in coming into the race but the poll found Carmona leading Flake by 4 points, 44% to 40%.  Carmona is Latino and the former Surgeon General under George W. Bush who, with large support from the President, doesn’t agree 100% with Obamacare.

But if the left can swing Arizona, which has formerly fought off all progressive candidates and issues, what does that mean on the national level?  It is generally accepted that to win the Presidential election, you must win Ohio.  According to Public Policy Polling, as of today Obama leads Romney by 5 points in Ohio, 51% to 46%.  There’s a new presidential debate coming up and Obama has promised to come out aggressive.  Right now, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Arizona.

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